Thursday, January 16, 2014

Is 2014 another good year for U.S. Stocks?

In this round of Heads or Tails, we'll be making the case for the 2014 prediction of the U.S. stock market. The list will accumulate periodically to better gauge the trend.

Heads: 2014 will be a good year for stocks
  • On December 18, 2013, the Federal Reserve has announced they will keep interest rates low
    [source]
  • The US is sitting on a huge stock pile of natural gas which could provide new opportunities
    [source]
  • Unemployment rate improved drastically to 6.7 taking it to pre-2008 crash level
    [source]

Tails: 2014 will end badly for stocks
  • On December 18, 2013, the Federal Reserve has announced their intention to reduce bond purchases
    [source]
  • Despite the improved 6.7 unemployment rate, the wage trend indicator shows very low wages and low wage growth
    [source]
  • On December 30, 2013, margin debt is at an all time high
    [source]
  • As of January 15, 2014, the US national debt exceeds $17 trillion.
    [source]

At this moment, there is very little evidence to suggest a strong trend up or down. However, a $17 trillion debt is not to be taken lightly. We'll continue to add more to the list, but this is it for now.

No comments:

Post a Comment